Most Rural Voters Stuck With Trump, And Some Major Metro Voters Went Red

Graph by Sarah Melotte, The Daily Yonder

Heading into the presidential election, Pennsylvania was a key swing state. But on Election Day, voters across the state, including more rural residents, voted red, helping Donald Trump secure his second presidency.

“Donald Trump reclaimed Pennsylvania and the presidency on Tuesday when the urban coalition that gave Joe Biden his 2020 victory in the state failed to show up for Vice President Kamala Harris,” report Sarah Melotte and Tim Marema for The Daily Yonder. “Trump won the state by 171,000 votes, primarily by eroding Democratic turnout in the major metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.”

Even though Trump’s metro gains were slight, when paired with Harris’ poor performance in those same areas, it was enough to turn the tide. “Trump earned about 30,000 more votes this year than he did in 2020 in those same counties in and around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh,” Melotte and Marema explain. “Harris earned 89,000 fewer votes in these major metropolitan areas than Biden did in 2020. . . . The difference was determinative in a state that both candidates needed to win the Electoral College vote.”

Trump also prevailed in the state’s “small rural areas and medium-sized cities,” the Yonder reports. “And he improved on his 2020 performance in doing so. . . . Rural counties saw the least shift to Trump from 2020 to 2024, but that’s partly because his margin was already so high. Trump won 73.4% of the rural Pennsylvania vote this year, compared to 72.5% in 2020.”

Graph by Sarah Melotte, The Daily Yonder

Despite lower gains in rural areas, Trump added to his 2020 numbers. “Trump improved his percentage of the rural vote in Pennsylvania by less than a percentage point compared to 2020. Trump picked up about 17,000 additional votes compared to 2020, while Harris lost about 2,100 compared to Biden’s performance in 2020,” Melotte and Marema add. “Trump won rural counties by over 45 points.”